Marketers warn of impending surge in pump prices as crude oil scarcity looms

Tuesday, June 24, 2025 - Global crude oil prices are on track to exceed $80 per barrel this week due to a significant rise in tensions between the United States and Iran. The market has reacted strongly to reports of coordinated U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities, raising concerns about a broader conflict in the Middle East.

In response, petroleum marketers in Nigeria are warning that petrol pump prices could rise to ₦1,000 per litre in the coming weeks, driven by soaring crude oil prices and foreign exchange volatility.

The United States conducted a "preemptive defensive strike" on three of Iran's major nuclear sites, which President Donald Trump claimed "obliterated" Tehran’s critical infrastructure. This action coincided with an Israeli offensive, prompting Iran, OPEC’s third-largest oil producer, to vow retaliation.

In what seems to be a countermeasure, the Iranian parliament has reportedly approved a move to close the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway through which nearly 20% of the world's oil supply flows. This has led to a surge in Brent crude prices and heightened fears of major supply disruptions.

“If crude oil hits $80 per barrel, depot prices may rise to ₦1,000 per litre. Last week’s spike was triggered when Dangote temporarily halted sales, but the refinery has resumed selling at ₦880 for two million litres,” Olatide Jeremiah, CEO of PetroleumPrice.ng said.

The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) has confirmed that a spike in global oil prices—driven by the Iran-Israel crisis and foreign exchange instability—is causing an increase in petrol prices.

As of Sunday, June 22, many filling stations across Nigeria were selling petrol for between ₦930 and ₦960 per litre. Lagos had the lowest prices at approximately ₦925, while prices in the northern regions reached between ₦980 and ₦1,000 per litre due to higher transportation and logistics costs.

Chinedu Ukadike, the National Publicity Secretary of IPMAN, stated, “Crude oil prices have increased from $66 to about $77 per barrel. Both the exchange rate and international oil prices are driving costs up. Dangote and other importers have adjusted their prices accordingly.”

The Dangote Refinery raised its price from ₦825 to ₦880 per litre on Friday. Consequently, MRS and other stations selling Dangote petrol increased their pump prices to an average of ₦955 per litre in the South East and Northwest regions. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has increased the pump price of petrol to N915 per litre in Lagos and N945 per litre in Abuja.

Other depots followed suit:

Rainoil: ₦900 (up from ₦850)
Fynefield: ₦930
Mainland Depot: ₦920
Sigmund: ₦920
Matrix (Warri): ₦910
NIPCO: ₦895 (up from ₦827)
Aiteo: ₦840

Ukadike warned that the rising cost of lifting 50,000 litres of petrol is pressuring marketers financially and forcing them to review pricing strategies. He noted that the Dangote refinery, while local, still sources crude at international prices — diminishing the price advantage over imports.

“Unless there’s intervention in the naira-for-crude deal or forex rate, petrol prices will remain volatile,” Ukadike added.