Tuesday, June 24, 2025 - Iran’s parliament has voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil passes—raising the specter of global economic disruption.
If enacted, the move could halt over $1 billion in oil
shipments per day and send global oil prices soaring. On Sunday, Brent crude
rose 3.9% to $80 per barrel, while U.S. crude climbed 4.3% to $77.
The closure, framed as a retaliatory escalation following
U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, awaits a final decision from
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, which is expected imminently,
according to state-run Press TV.
“This escalation will proceed
whenever necessary,” said Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander
Esmail Kosari on Sunday.
The narrow Strait of Hormuz, just 20 miles wide at its
tightest point and with shipping lanes less than two miles wide in each
direction, is one of the world’s most strategically vulnerable waterways. The
strait connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and serves as the main
export route for the oil-rich Gulf states—including Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
According to military analysts, Iran would likely not attempt
a full naval blockade but rather a multi-layered, asymmetric approach.
“Iran’s most immediate disruptive
tool would be naval mines,” said Gregg Roman, executive director of the Middle
East Forum. “They’d likely pair that with anti-ship missiles launched from
mobile coastal batteries—such as their Ghader and Nasir systems—capable of
striking vessels up to 185 miles away.”
The United States Navy’s Fifth Fleet, along with allied naval
forces, continues to patrol the region and is expected to respond forcefully to
any disruption. Iran has no legal right to block international sea lanes, and
any such attempt would violate international maritime law.
Iran’s own economy also depends heavily on the Strait of
Hormuz, not just for exporting oil but for importing essential goods. Analysts
believe a closure would be economically self-defeating.
“Such a move would be temporary and
ultimately self-destructive,” Roman said. “Iran relies on the strait for its
own vital imports and understands this would provoke a massive U.S. military
response.”
He added that Tehran is more likely to use the threat as
diplomatic leverage than follow through, noting that alienating China—the
largest buyer of Iranian oil—would be “economic suicide.”
The decision comes after U.S. forces dropped six GBU-57
“bunker buster” bombs on Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility and two other sites as
part of Operation Midnight Hammer, following an earlier Israeli campaign
targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called the U.S.
attacks “lawless and criminal,” warning of “everlasting consequences.”
The potential closure of Hormuz has alarmed global markets
and governments, particularly in Asia. Countries like China, India, Japan, and
South Korea—heavily reliant on oil shipments through the strait—are likely to
face the most immediate consequences.
Iran has disrupted shipping in the Persian Gulf before. In
April 2023, the IRGC seized a U.S.-bound tanker and detained a vessel linked to
Israel, citing alleged maritime violations. But a full-scale closure would mark
an unprecedented escalation with global ramifications.
US President Donald Trump, in a Sunday address, hailed the
damage done to Iran’s nuclear sites as “monumental,” citing satellite images of
obliterated mountain bunkers and reiterating that the operation had struck
“bullseye” targets deep underground.
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