Tuesday, February 17 2026 - Nigeria’s food inflation rate fell to 8.89 per cent year-on-year in January 2026, the lowest level recorded in more than 14 years, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report released by the National Bureau of Statistics.
Also, headline inflation eased marginally to 15.10 per cent
in January 2026 from 15.15 per cent in December 2025, contrary to earlier
projections by analysts that inflation could climb to 19 per cent in January.
But members of the Organised Private Sector cautioned
against undue excitement over the marginal decline in Nigeria’s headline
inflation rate in January, which they attributed to improved food production
and stability of the exchange rate.
The latest food inflation figure marks the first
single-digit reading in 128 months and the lowest since August 2011, when food
inflation stood at 8.66 per cent. From June 2015, when the rate rose to 10.04
per cent, food inflation remained in double digits for 128 consecutive months
until December 2025.
Data from the bureau showed that food inflation fell from
29.63 per cent in January 2025 to 8.89 per cent in January 2026, a decline of
20.73 percentage points over one year. On a month-on-month basis, food
inflation contracted by 6.02 per cent in January, compared with a 0.36 per cent
decline in December 2025.
The NBS attributed the slowdown to reductions in the average
prices of water yams, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil,
maize grains, guinea corn, beans, beef, melon, and cassava tubers.
In the report, the bureau stated, “The food inflation rate
in January 2026 was 8.89 per cent on a year-on-year basis. This was 20.73
percentage points lower compared to the rate recorded in January 2025, which
was 29.63 per cent. On a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in
January 2026 was -6.02 per cent, down by 5.66 percentage points compared to
December 2025, which was -0.36 per cent.”
On a 12-month average basis, food inflation stood at 20.29
per cent in January 2026, significantly lower than the 38.47 per cent recorded
in January 2025. The moderation follows a prolonged inflation surge between
2022 and 2024. Food inflation rose from 23.75 per cent in December 2022 to
33.93 per cent in December 2023 and peaked at 40.87 per cent in June 2024.
It remained elevated at 29.63 per cent in January 2025
before easing gradually through the year, falling to 10.84 per cent in December
2025 and then to single digits in January 2026. The latest figure represents a
drop of nearly 32 percentage points from the June 2024 peak.
Headline inflation
Headline inflation also eased marginally to 15.10 per cent
in January 2026 from 15.15 per cent in December 2025, contrary to earlier
projections by analysts that inflation could climb to 19 per cent in January.
The NBS said the January headline rate was 0.05 percentage
points lower than the December figure. The Consumer Price Index declined to
127.4 in January from 131.2 in December, reflecting a 3.8-point decrease.
On a year-on-year basis, headline inflation was 15.10 per
cent in January 2026, 12.51 percentage points lower than the 27.61 per cent
recorded in January 2025. The latest reading is the lowest in five years and
two months, since November 2020, when inflation stood at 14.89 per cent.
Month-on-month, the headline rate was negative 2.88 per cent
in January, compared with 0.54 per cent in December, indicating that the
average price level declined during the month.
The report noted, “The Consumer Price Index declined to
127.4 in January 2026, reflecting a 3.8-point decrease from the preceding month
(131.2).
“In January 2026, the headline inflation rate eased to 15.10
per cent, down from 15.15 per cent in December 2025. Looking at the movement,
the January 2026 headline inflation rate showed a decrease of 0.05 per cent
compared to the December 2025 headline inflation rate.”
The bureau added that the percentage change in the average
CPI for the 12 months ending January 2026 over the previous 12-month average
was 21.97 per cent, a 4.37 percentage-point increase from the 17.59 per cent
recorded in January 2025.
A breakdown showed that urban inflation stood at 15.36 per
cent year-on-year in January 2026, down sharply from 29.45 per cent in January
2025. On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation declined by 2.72 per cent
compared with 0.99 per cent in December. The corresponding 12-month average for
urban inflation was 22.30 per cent.
Rural inflation was 14.44 per cent year-on-year in January
2026, lower than the 25.04 per cent recorded in January 2025. On a
month-on-month basis, rural inflation fell by 3.29 per cent compared with a
negative 0.55 per cent in December. The 12-month average for rural inflation
stood at 21.03 per cent.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce
and energy, stood at 17.72 per cent year-on-year in January 2026, compared to
25.27 per cent in January 2025. On a month-on-month basis, it declined by 1.69
per cent compared with 0.58 per cent in December. The 12-month average core
inflation rate was 22.84 per cent, lower than the 27.24 per cent recorded in
January 2025.
State-level data revealed variations across the country.
Benue recorded the highest year-on-year all-items inflation rate at 22.48 per
cent, followed by Kogi at 20.98 per cent and the Federal Capital Territory at
19.25 per cent. Ebonyi, Katsina, and Imo recorded the lowest year-on-year
headline inflation rates at 8.72 per cent, 8.94 per cent, and 10.61 per cent,
respectively.
On a month-on-month basis, Imo and Ondo recorded the highest
increases at 1.93 per cent and 1.932 per cent respectively, while Cross River,
Ogun, and Kogi posted the sharpest declines at negative 6.34 per cent, negative
6.30 per cent, and negative 6.03 per cent.
For food inflation, Kogi recorded the highest year-on-year
rate at 19.84 per cent, followed by Benue at 18.38 per cent and Adamawa at
17.29 per cent, while Ebonyi, Abia, and Imo recorded the slowest increases in
food prices.
The January figures indicate a broad-based easing in price
pressures, driven largely by the sharp deceleration in food costs, although the
elevated 12-month averages show that the impact of earlier inflation spikes is
still reflected in the broader price level.
Members of the Organised Private Sector cautioned against
undue excitement over the marginal decline in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate
in January, which they attributed to improved food production and stability of
the exchange rate.
In separate phone interviews with The PUNCH, these
stakeholders explained that despite slow inflation, the country faced a
persistently high-priced market.
The National Vice President of the National Association of
Small-Scale Industrialists, Kuti-George, said increased production, especially
in agriculture, drove the slight moderation. He said, “The economy recorded
this marginal drop due to an increase in the production of goods and industrial
outposts, especially rice and cassava production.”
He added that exchange rate stability supported the trend,
stating, “Another reason is the relative stability in the exchange rate. The
official exchange rate is about N1 to $1,350. That is a considerable drop from
the earlier high value. Generally, there has been stability due to these
factors.”
Kuti-George noted that some items had recorded price
reductions and expressed optimism ahead of the fasting season. “There is a drop
in some items in the market. We have not heard about any pressure on food
prices that usually comes during the fasting season. The impact I see is that
we are set for a positive year,” the NASSI leader noted.
However, the Director-General of the National Association of
Small and Medium Enterprises, Eke Ubiji, maintained that the lower inflation
rate had not translated into relief for consumers. “Cost of living is very,
very high. The evidence on the ground does not justify what is being put
forward to the masses. Even if you carry N10,000 to the market, what are you
going to buy?” Ubiji asked.
He explained with some examples: “Look at the gas you are
buying before. Before you can buy 3kg of gas for 3,000 something. How much is
it now? For nearly two years now, I’ve been using 6kg. I don’t use my 12kg
cylinder; it’s packed up in the house. The same thing, rice. Even if you carry
N10,000 to go to the market, what are you going to buy?”
The NASME DG contested that both food and non-food items
remained expensive and vulnerable to further price increases. Ubiji observed,
“If I use the food items that are common to everybody, there is no change. The
same thing applies to non-food items. Prices are still high.”
While acknowledging that the pace of price increases may
have slowed, the business leader warned the government against celebrating too
early.
“I understand that the prices of items are still going to be high, but maybe they won’t be increasing at the fast pace as they used to earlier. I don’t know. The government should not think that things are getting better. By the time you know the reality, it is very late,” he said.
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