Tuesday, January 6, 2026 -The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected an improvement in the country’s external position for 2026, with the current account surplus expected to rise to $18.81 billion, despite the banking system’s challenges in addressing elevated non-performing loan risks amid ongoing reforms and tightening credit conditions.
In its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, the apex bank stated that
the widening current account surplus would be driven by stronger export
earnings, steady diaspora remittances, higher oil and gas output, and increased
domestic refining capacity. These factors are expected to offset import demand
and support a more resilient balance of payments position, reinforcing
confidence in the foreign exchange market.
According to the apex bank, the positive trend in the
external position is expected to be sustained this year, “supported by strong
exports, steady remittances inflow, increased oil & gas output, improved
domestic refining capacity and rising global demand from key trading partners.
“The current account surplus is expected to rise to $18.81
billion, while increased portfolio investment inflows and external borrowings
are projected to keep the financial account in a net borrowing position of
$10.15 billion.” The CBN report stated
Aside from the current account gains, the CBN projects that
the financial account will remain in a net borrowing position of $10.15 billion
this year, reflecting sustained portfolio inflows and external borrowings
attracted by relatively high yields and improving investor sentiment. It also
noted that the inflows, combined with stronger trade earnings, are expected to
increase external reserves to approximately $51.04 billion by the end of 2026,
thereby strengthening Nigeria’s external buffers.
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