If democracy collapses in Nigeria, the entire West African region will crumble, ECOWAS warns

Tuesday, November 18, 2025 - The Economic Community of West African States has warned that “if democracy falters in Nigeria, democracy will collapse everywhere else in the entire West African region.”

ECOWAS Commission President, Omar Touray, sounded the warning in Abuja on Monday during the launch of “Regional Partnership for Democracy”,a new initiative aimed at countering the continent’s mounting democratic decline.

Represented by ECOWAS Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security, Ambassador Abdel-Fatau Musah, Touray stressed that democracy in the region is under severe strain.

 He praised Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal and Cabo Verde for holding firm to multiparty governance, adding, “Make no mistake, if democracy falters in Nigeria, democracy will collapse everywhere else in the entire West African region.”

The commissioner also urged West African countries to reconsider the standard four-year presidential tenure, describing it as insufficient to achieve meaningful development and democratic consolidation.

Musah highlighted the critical challenges facing democracy in the region, including unconstitutional changes of government, judicial manipulation, and exclusion of opposition parties.

 Musah said, “Take a country like Nigeria or Ghana, where the mandate of a democratically elected president does not exceed four years, and practically speaking, four years is not enough even to initiate major developmental programmes to deal with the core challenges in our continent.

“We need to look at this and then look at the whole issue of tenure limits in West Africa.

I think that should also be on the agenda of regional discourse.”

Musah emphasised that the RPD Programme, launched by Nigeria in partnership with the United Nations Development Programme and the Federal Government, comes at a critical time.

The commissioner noted, “It is being launched at a time when the social contract between the state and the citizenry is unravelling at the seams because of democracy as practised in Africa and in our sub-region is notoriously thin on delivering on dividends, basic infrastructure and social safety net for the vulnerable, not to talk about safety and security.”

Musah pointed to “an upsurge of attempted and successful military coups” and the “unconstitutional maintenance of power by incumbents.”

He said the region’s challenges are compounded by global tensions and “fake news and manipulation through the explosion of AI-empowered social media,” as well as terrorism and violent extremism.

Despite this, Musah insisted that “regime security cannot be a substitute for democracy and development, as hard security without development will eventually come crashing down as an edifice built on sandy foundations.”

Musah urged the UNDP to pay special attention to priority areas of intervention, which include the nature of political parties in the region; the debate about the current liberal democracy, among others.

The partnership, announced by Nigeria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yusuf Tuggar, brought together regional institutions and international partners to address what he described as the “sobering and deeply complex challenges” confronting democratic governance on the continent.

Tuggar said the new framework marked “the opening of a new chapter in Africa’s democratic journey.”

Tuggar warned that despite existing continental mechanisms, democratic systems remain strained by “the persistence of political violence, the limited participation of citizens in decision-making processes, the growing phenomenon of administrative impunity among political office holders and in some instances, the weakening of judicial and media institutions.”

He said these trends often lead to “unconstitutional changes of government or protracted political instability; conditions which, in turn, fuel insecurity and violence.”

He argued that part of the problem lies in the “uncritical transplantation of governance models and values that do not adequately reflect our cultural contexts, our social norms, or our historical experiences,” a mismatch he said results in “democratic stagnation, institutional fragility, or, indeed, flagrant abuses of power.”

Tuggar described the RPD as an African-grounded alternative, saying it is built on the belief that “democracy flourishes most sustainably when it is rooted in African values and attuned to local peculiarities, whilst drawing judiciously from global best practices.”

He called the framework “more than a policy instrument; it is President Bola  Tinubu’s contribution and indeed, Nigeria’s gift to the strengthening and flourishing of democracy in Africa.”

The initiative aims to strengthen electoral bodies, establish early-warning systems for unconstitutional transitions, enhance youth engagement, counter disinformation and promote long-term political stability.

He also warned about the spread of misinformation, referencing the global “post-truth era” and arguing that “even the media helps sustain an echo chamber of ignorance.”

The UNDP described the initiative as a sign of African-led democratic renewal. Its Resident Representative, Elsie Attafuah, praised Nigeria for spearheading the effort, calling the partnership “a compact of values.”

“It is African-led, regionally anchored and globally significant, grounded in our belief that the answers to Africa’s deepest challenges lie within Africa itself,” she said.

Attafuah outlined four pillars of the programme: strengthening institutions and public accountability; ensuring inclusive participation, especially for women, youth, and persons with disabilities; promoting credible elections; and fostering regional cooperation.

She said the initiative draws on the region’s democratic milestones and aims to “scale what is working, deepen institutional reforms, and accelerate a continental pathway where democracy becomes not only an aspiration, but a lived reality.”

She committed the UNDP to supporting implementation across the region, adding that “the regional partnership for democracy will be implemented not from Abuja alone, but across West African capitals, institutions, and communities.”

Over the past decade, West Africa has faced mounting democratic setbacks, marked by a resurgence of military coups and prolonged political crises.

Since 2020, Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Niger have each undergone military coups that removed their elected governments. In response, ECOWAS imposed sanctions, suspended these states from its institutions, and pursued diplomatic efforts aimed at restoring constitutional rule and negotiating transition timelines.

These disruptions have occurred alongside concerns about electoral credibility, term-limit manipulation and shrinking civic space, contributing to what regional observers describe as the most severe democratic recession in West Africa since the early 1990s.

At the same time, West Africa has become a major theatre for violent extremism and armed insurgencies, particularly in the Sahel, where groups affiliated with al-Qaeda and ISIS have expanded their reach.