Friday, January 16, 2026 - The World Bank has retained Nigeria’s economic growth forecast at 4.4% for 2027, signaling sustained optimism about the country’s medium-term outlook despite lingering structural challenges.
This, according to the latest World Bank’s Global Economic
Prospects, aligns with the projection earlier published in its Nigeria
Development Update (NDU) in October 2025.
Recall that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by
3.46% year-on-year in real terms during the third quarter of 2024, according to
the latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The Bretton Woods Institution also upgraded Nigeria’s 2026
growth estimate to 4.4%, up from the 3.7% forecast contained in its June 2025
Global Economic Prospects report, reflecting improving macroeconomic
conditions.
The World Bank expects Nigeria’s economy to grow at 4.4% in
both 2026 and 2027, marking what it described as the country’s fastest growth
pace in over a decade.
According to the report, this expansion will be driven
primarily by sustained growth in the services sector, a rebound in agricultural
production, and a modest acceleration in non-oil industrial activities.
“Growth in Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to 4.4 per cent
in both 2026 and 2027—the fastest pace in over a decade,” the bank noted.
The Bank added that continued expansion in services and
improved agricultural output would remain the key pillars supporting economic
performance over the forecast period.
The World Bank noted that ongoing economic
reforms—particularly within the tax system— combined with prudent monetary
policy, are expected to support economic activity and strengthen macroeconomic
stability.
“Economic reforms, including in the tax system, along with
continued prudent monetary policy, are expected to continue supporting
activity”
These policy measures, the Bank said, should help to
“improve investor sentiment and reduce inflation further. Higher oil output is
expected to offset lower international oil prices this year, helping to boost
fiscal revenues and strengthen the external balance,” the World Bank
said.
The sustained emphasis on non-oil growth highlights the
gradual impact of Nigeria’s economic diversification efforts aimed at reducing
reliance on crude oil exports.
A stronger services sector and improved agricultural
output could help create jobs, stabilise prices, and broaden the government’s
revenue base over time.
For investors and policymakers, the World Bank’s forecast
provides a measure of confidence that recent reforms may begin to yield
tangible results, even as the country continues to navigate economic
vulnerabilities.
The World Bank also projected that growth in Sub-Saharan
Africa will strengthen to 4.3% in 2026, supported by economic reforms,
resilient domestic investment, and easing inflation across the region.
Globally, the Bank expects the world economy to remain
resilient, with growth easing slightly to 2.6% in 2026 before rising to 2.7% in
2027—an upward revision from its June forecast.
The improved global outlook reflects moderating inflation, stabilising financial conditions, and stronger-than-expected performance in several emerging and developing economies, even as geopolitical and climate-related risks remain elevated
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