Why Visa denials could cost U.S billions of dollars annually

Monday, January 19, 2026 - As the United States begins to halt the issuance of certain U.S. visas to Nigerian nationals and dozens of other countries from January 2026, the economic dis­ruption is already rippling across global travel, education, and tour­ism sectors — with quantifiable losses stretching from airlines and hotels in the United States to travel agencies in Nigeria and students on both sides of the At­lantic.  

On December 23, 2025, the U.S. Mission in Nigeria confirmed a partial suspension of visitor (B-1/B-2), student (F, M) and ex­change (J) visas under Presiden­tial Proclamation 10998, affecting Nigerian citizens and nationals of at least 18 other countries.

This policy — part of a broad­er tightening of U.S. visa rules — means that many intending travelers may remain in their home countries without the abili­ty to travel to the U.S. for business, tourism, education, or exchange programmes.

While visas already issued be­fore January 1, 2026, remain valid, new applicants face an uncertain process, creating profound de­mand shocks for airlines, hotels, travel agencies, and universities.

International visitors are a cornerstone of U.S. travel reve­nue. In 2024, international tour­ism contributed roughly $181 billion in foreign visitor spend­ing — part of a travel economy that supports over 15 million jobs and contributes an estimated $1.3 trillion to U.S. economic output.

But multiple industry reports show international travel to the U.S. already sliding:

A World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) analysis project­ed a drop of about $12.5 billion in international visitor spending in 2025 as foreign tourism dips amid restrictive policies and reduced border confidence.

A Reuters estimate predict­ed a roughly 7 percent decline in foreign travel spending com­pared with the previous year — a direct hit to airlines, hotels, and local economies reliant on global visitors.

For major airlines, this trans­lates into lower load factors and reduced route demand — a direct consequence of fewer travelers buying transatlantic and long-haul tickets.

Without robust tourism flows, carriers face pressure to cut fre­quencies, reassign aircraft, and reduce staffing costs. Similar dynamics hit U.S. hotels, whose occupancy and average daily rates are tightly correlated with international arrivals.

International students aren’t just learners — they’re economic contributors. According to data from the NAFSA: Association of International Educators, interna­tional students contributed about $42.9 billion to the U.S. economy and supported more than 355,000 jobs in 2024-25.

That contribution is now at risk: A snapshot of Fall 2025 en­rollment showed a 17 percent drop in new international student enrollment, equating to over $1.1 billion in lost revenue and nearly 23,000 jobs tied directly to student spending on tuition, housing, and daily living.

Other analyses have project­ed that continued visa disruption could translate to up to $7 billion in revenue losses for the U.S. if student declines continue into the academic year, along with tens of thousands of at-risk jobs.

These losses compound the blow because international stu­dents typically spend more per capita than other visitor catego­ries, strengthening local econo­mies around college towns and big urban centers alike.

For Nigerian travel agents and tour operators, U.S. visa restric­tions are already translating into cancelled bookings and shrinking revenue pipelines.

Without confidence that cli­ents’ visa applications will be approved, many agencies must refund service fees, cancel flights and hotel arrangements, and find alternate destinations — often at financial loss. Unlike visa fees — which are non-refundable and already paid — travel bookings involve significant sunk costs for airlines and travel intermediaries.

Nigerian students and profes­sionals also face acute personal and economic disruption — from delayed education plans to lost employment opportunities tied to internships or exchange pro­grammes that hinge on timely visa issuance.

Air carriers operating be­tween Africa and the U.S. — such as Delta, United, and other major international carriers — are con­fronting a softer inbound market from countries affected by the visa changes.

Travel specialists report low­er passenger traffic on routes serving African hubs, with con­sequences that include: Fewer sold seats and lower revenues per flight,

reduced demand for premi­um and business class inventory, route rationalization as airlines reconsider frequency on un­der-performing international links.

Crucially, even Nigerian trav­elers connecting through Europe­an or Middle Eastern hubs may choose alternative destinations entirely, diverting revenues away from U.S. carriers to competitors in Europe or the Gulf.

The U.S. visa slowdown plays into a broader global trend of tourism diversion, where interna­tional visitors increasingly opt for destinations that offer smoother, more welcoming entry regimes. Analysts noted that while U.S. arrivals dipped, global tourism spending rose, with countries like Spain and France attracting larger shares of foreign visitors.

In this global marketplace, restrictive visa policies risk per­manent shifts in traveler loyalty — especially in segments like luxury leisure travel and high­er education, where alternative markets aggressively court pro­spective travelers.

The economic fallout from U.S. visa issuance disruptions is quantifiable in billions of dollars — from an estimated $12.5 bil­lion loss in international visitor spending to multi-billion-dollar hits on education and student spending.

Airlines confront weakened demand, hotels see lower occu­pancy from key international markets, and travel agencies — both in the U.S. and Nigeria — must contend with booking losses and operational uncertainty.

Without decisive and trans­parent policy recalibration that restores confidence in visa pro­cessing, these losses may deepen, posing significant risks not only to the U.S. travel economy but to Nigerian agency networks and global mobility patterns that have long underpinned international exchange, business, and tourism.