Tuesday, January 20, 2026 - The International Monetary Fund has upgraded Nigeria’s economic growth forecast to 4.4 per cent in 2026, citing improved macroeconomic conditions and sustained reform momentum.
The revised projection was contained in the IMF’s January
2026 World Economic Outlook Update, titled “Global Economy: Steady amid
Divergent Forces.” The Fund expects Nigeria’s economy to follow a steady
expansion path, growing from 4.1 per cent in 2024 to 4.2 per cent in 2025,
before accelerating to 4.4 per cent in 2026. The new figure represents a 0.2
percentage point upward revision from the IMF’s October 2025 forecast.
According to the Fund, Nigeria’s stronger outlook aligns with
broader growth trends across sub-Saharan Africa, where economic expansion is
projected to reach 4.6 per cent in both 2026 and 2027. The IMF attributed the
regional improvement to ongoing macroeconomic stabilisation and reform efforts
across key economies.
At the global level, the IMF projected economic growth of 3.3
per cent in 2026, noting that the world economy remains resilient despite
persistent uncertainties. The Fund said the outlook reflects a balance of
opposing forces, with the impact of changing trade policies being offset by
increased investment in technology and artificial intelligence.
For Nigeria, the IMF identified energy prices as a key factor
influencing the 2026 outlook. It projected that energy commodity prices could
decline by about seven per cent in 2026, largely due to weak global demand.
However, the report noted that oil prices continue to find support from
coordinated production management by OPEC+ and crude stockpiling by China,
helping to limit downside pressures.
Despite the improved forecast, the IMF warned that risks to
the outlook remain tilted to the downside. These include escalating
geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine with possible spillovers
to global supply chains, renewed trade tensions and protectionist policies that
could heighten uncertainty, and high public debt levels and fiscal deficits
that may push long-term interest rates higher.
To sustain growth, the IMF urged Nigerian authorities to
rebuild fiscal buffers and press ahead with structural reforms. It stressed the
importance of central bank independence for maintaining macroeconomic
stability, particularly in a volatile global environment. The Fund also
cautioned that any discretionary fiscal support should be carefully targeted
and time-bound to ensure it remains temporary
The IMF concluded that Nigeria’s ability to achieve its 2026
growth target will depend on the consistent implementation of reforms and the
country’s capacity to withstand domestic and external shocks as the global
economy continues to adjust.
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