Tuesday, December 30, 2025 - Nigeria’s external reserves are projected to rise to $51.04 billion in 2026, supported by easing pressure in the foreign exchange market, stronger oil earnings and sustained inflows from remittances and foreign investments, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The apex bank disclosed this in its 2026 Macroeconomic
Outlook for Nigeria published on its website on Tuesday, noting that the
projected reserve level compares with an estimated $45.01 billion in 2025.
The CBN said the expected improvement in external reserves
would be driven largely by reduced pressure in the FX market, anchored on a
combination of higher oil receipts, sovereign bond issuances and steady
diaspora remittance inflows. It added that the ongoing expansion of the Dangote
Refinery’s nameplate capacity to 700,000 barrels per day from 650,000 barrels
per day in 2025, and ultimately to 1.4 million barrels per day in the medium
term, would further strengthen reserve accretion.
According to the bank, recent reforms in the FX market are
expected to further enhance efficiency and transparency, narrow the premium
between the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) and Bureau de Change (BDC)
rates, and sustain exchange rate stability. Improved domestic refining capacity
is also expected to significantly reduce foreign exchange demand for fuel
imports, thereby easing pressure on the reserves.
The CBN said Nigeria’s external balance is expected to
remain positive in 2026, supported by robust export growth and steady
remittance inflows. It noted that the projected rise in export earnings hinges
on increased crude oil and gas output, as infrastructure improvements and
better security around oil installations boost production.
Overall, the external position is expected to benefit from
improving demand conditions in major trading partner economies, reinforced by a
projected uptick in foreign investments.
The current account balance is projected to record a higher
surplus of $18.81 billion, representing 11.16 percent of gross domestic product
(GDP) in 2026, compared with a surplus of $16.94 billion, or 10.94 percent of
GDP, in 2025. This outlook is underpinned by steady diaspora remittances and
increased export receipts.
In the goods account, export receipts are projected to rise
to $58.26 billion in 2026 from $54.59 billion in 2025, driven by stronger oil
and non-oil exports. Oil export earnings are expected to improve on the back of
higher domestic crude oil production, supported by improved security around oil
facilities and sustained investments in the sector. In addition, the
commencement of petroleum products exports in 2025 is expected to further lift
export earnings.
For non-oil exports, the CBN said sustained growth in
agricultural commodity and fertilizer exports is expected to boost receipts.
The recently launched National Export Trading Company, aimed at addressing
persistent gaps in the export value chain, as well as the National Intellectual
Property Policy designed to support creative exports, are expected to further
strengthen non-oil export performance.
Imports are projected to increase to $43.27 billion in 2026
from $39.92 billion in 2025, reflecting anticipated higher demand for capital
goods and intermediate inputs as economic activity strengthens.
The services account deficit is expected to widen to $13.68
billion in 2026 from $12.80 billion in 2025, driven by higher payments for
business and transport services. The rise in business services payments
reflects Nigeria’s increasing demand for research and development services,
while payments for transport services are expected to rise in line with higher
freight charges associated with increased imports of non-oil merchandise.
The primary income account is projected to remain in deficit
at $8.62 billion, due to higher investment income payments to non-resident
investors, as relatively attractive yields continue to attract foreign
portfolio inflows.
Meanwhile, the positive performance of the secondary income
account is expected to be sustained in 2026, with a projected surplus of $26.13
billion compared with $23.82 billion in 2025. This projection is based on
anticipated growth in diaspora remittances through formal channels, as well as
higher inflows of general transfers, particularly those linked to preparations
for national elections.
The financial account is expected to remain in a net
borrowing position of $10.15 billion, reflecting higher portfolio inflows and
new external borrowings by the government, the CBN added.
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