Monday, June 16, 2025 - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has triggered a spike in global crude oil prices and led to an increase in petrol depot prices by 10 major Nigerian marketers. Crude prices jumped by 8.8%, rising from $68 to $74 per barrel.
Tensions have escalated following Iran’s threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime route responsible for transporting over 20% of global oil and gas. Maritime experts warn that any disruption in the strait would significantly impact global trade and energy supplies.
Petrol marketers that adjusted their depot prices include
Aiteo, Pinnacle, Dangote, MENJ, Swift, Rainoil, First Royal, Emadeb, First
Fortune, and Ever.
Depot Price Adjustments:
Emadeb: From ₦827 to ₦845 per litre (+2.18%)
Ever: From ₦866 to ₦870 per litre (+0.46%)
Aiteo: From ₦835 to ₦840 per litre
Pinnacle: From ₦829 to ₦845 per litreDangote Petroleum
Refinery: From ₦830 to ₦840 per litre
MENJ: From ₦810 to ₦850 per litre
Swift: From
₦830 to ₦845 per litre
Rainoil
(Lagos): From ₦840 to ₦850 per litre
First
Royal: From ₦826 to ₦838 per litre
First
Fortune: From ₦850 to ₦860 per litre
According to a report from Petroleumprice.ng, the instability
in global oil markets may lead to continued increases in depot prices in the
coming weeks. The escalating conflict has raised concerns that more military
strikes and counterstrikes could prolong volatility in energy markets.
OPEC notes that Iran's wealth of natural resources—including
petroleum, gas, coal, and various minerals—adds further weight to the
geopolitical stakes.
While the United States has called for restraint, Iran has
vowed a "harsh response," fueling further uncertainty. Global
investment firm JP Morgan has forecast that crude prices could surge to between
$120 and $130 per barrel in a worst-case scenario involving military escalation
and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Dr. Muda Yusuf, Director of the Centre for the Promotion of
Private Enterprise (CPPE), warned that the crisis could significantly affect
Nigeria’s fragile economy.
“The war introduces troubling
dimensions to an already unstable global economy,” he said. “For Nigeria, the
implications are mixed—presenting both risks and opportunities.”
Yusuf explained that the rise in crude prices from $65 to $75
per barrel (a 15% increase in days) will likely lead to increased prices for
petrol, diesel, jet fuel, and gas, driving inflation and raising production and
transportation costs.
“These rising energy costs will feed
directly into inflation,” he noted. “We also expect imported inflation due to
the global impact of higher energy prices.”
He warned that higher inflation may prompt tighter monetary
policy, leading to rising interest rates and more challenging borrowing
conditions for Nigerian businesses. Non-oil sector investors and firms with
links to the Middle East could face increased vulnerability.
“While Nigeria may benefit from
higher oil revenues, there’s also a risk of monetary expansion from oil
monetization, which could destabilize the exchange rate,” Yusuf added.
“However, historically, there’s a positive correlation between higher crude prices,
GDP growth, and the Nigerian stock market. If oil prices stay high, the outlook
for the market could improve.”
Professor Wumi Iledare, a renowned petroleum economist,
described the current situation as a double-edged sword for Nigeria. With oil
prices edging toward $90 per barrel, he noted that OPEC+ supply discipline,
Middle East tensions, and resilient demand have placed global oil markets in
bullish territory.
“For Nigeria, the world’s
15th-largest oil exporter, this price surge offers a potential windfall in
foreign exchange and budget support,” he said. “But risks remain, and Nigeria
must maximize this opportunity while managing the challenges that come with
such volatility.”
The Organisation of Gas Producers and Suppliers Association
of Nigeria (OGSPAN) has also projected that the oil price spike could impact
Nigeria’s 2025 budget, offering potential revenue boosts. However, experts
caution that unless Nigeria significantly improves its crude output and
stabilises domestic refining, the benefits may be short-lived.
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