Monday, April 28, 2025 - Six months after Kemi Badenoch was elected leader of the UK Conservative Party, internal discussions have already shifted toward the possibility of replacing her.
With local elections in England approaching, many
Conservative MPs and officials are increasingly dissatisfied with Badenoch’s
leadership and have expressed concerns that she is not the right person to lead
the party into the next general election, scheduled for 2029.
According to more than two dozen sources who spoke to
Bloomberg on the condition of anonymity, there is growing support within the
party to replace Badenoch with Robert Jenrick, the right-wing shadow justice
secretary.
The discontent comes amid low polling numbers for the Tories
and the perception that Badenoch, who became leader on November 2, 2024,has
failed to address key issues, leaving the party vulnerable to challenges from
Nigel Farage’s Reform Party. Badenoch’s spokesperson declined to comment on the
situation, while Jenrick’s spokesperson pointed to an interview in which he
expressed support for Badenoch’s leadership, suggesting people should give her
time.
The situation is expected to worsen with the upcoming local
elections, where the Conservatives are predicted to lose a significant number
of seats. The Tories’ performance in these elections is crucial, as they are
seen as an early indicator of the party's standing ahead of the general
election. In the last local election in 2021, the Conservatives won nearly half
the races, bolstered by then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s successful COVID-19
vaccine rollout. However, since then, the party’s popularity has plummeted, and
they are now facing their worst-ever performance.
Political analysts predict a "total wipe-out" for
the Conservatives in the upcoming elections, with Rob Ford, a professor of
political science at the University of Manchester, calling it a "total and
unmitigated disaster." After briefly overtaking Labour in polls late last
year, the Conservatives have fallen more than five percentage points behind
both Labour and Reform, with the latter now emerging as a strong challenger on
the right.
There had been an assumption that Badenoch would have until
the summer of 2026 to prove herself, but some in the party now believe her
leadership may be challenged sooner. A senior party figure described her as
having entered the "political death zone," with her future becoming a
major topic of discussion among MPs and donors.
Badenoch inherited a difficult task when she succeeded Rishi Sunak in
November 2023 following the Tories' defeat in the general election, which saw
Labour secure a historic landslide victory. While some defend Badenoch, arguing
that rebuilding the party after such a heavy loss takes time, frustration is
growing. Critics claim she has focused on issues like net-zero policies and
transgender rights, which they argue do not resonate with voter priorities like
crime and immigration.
Badenoch’s performances at prime minister's questions have also drawn
criticism. Her attempts to challenge Labour leader Keir Starmer have been seen
as ineffective, with Starmer often turning her attacks back on the
Conservatives' own record. Meanwhile, Farage’s Reform Party has been steadily
gaining ground, further complicating Badenoch’s position. Some MPs argue that
she is too right-wing to appeal to centrist voters but not right-wing enough to
compete with Farage’s populist appeal.
Jenrick, who has built a strong following on the Conservative right, is
increasingly seen as a potential replacement. He has gained attention for his
high-profile campaigns on crime and national sovereignty, and a recent poll
found that he had a much higher satisfaction rating among Conservative members
than Badenoch. However, some centrist Tories are concerned that Jenrick would
push the party further to the right, potentially alienating voters in the
center
The situation remains fluid, with party figures divided on whether a
leadership change would help the Conservatives recover or further alienate
voters. Ultimately, the local election results will be pivotal in determining
Badenoch’s future, with political analysts suggesting that if the media
narrative shifts toward Farage’s rise rather than the Tories' collapse, she may
be able to maintain her leadership.
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