Wednesday, April 23, 2025 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised downward its economic growth forecast for Nigeria in 2025 to 3.0%, a 0.2 percentage point cut from its earlier projection of 3.2%. The downgrade is attributed to a decline in global crude oil prices, which remain a significant driver of Nigeria's economy.
The updated figures were published in the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic
Outlook (WEO) report, released in Washington, DC, during the ongoing Spring
Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank. The report outlines global and regional
economic trends, highlighting continued vulnerability among oil-dependent
economies.
According to the IMF, growth across sub-Saharan Africa is also expected to
experience a modest decline, with projections falling from 4.0% in 2024 to 3.8%
in 2025. However, a slight recovery is anticipated in 2026, with growth
forecasted at 4.2%.
Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, was singled out in the report as among
the major economies affected by falling oil prices. The IMF noted that the
country's 2026 growth forecast has also been revised downward by 0.3 percentage
points.
The IMF further reported similar economic challenges in other African
countries. In South Africa, growth projections were adjusted downward by 0.5
percentage point for 2025 and 0.3 percentage point for 2026. These revisions
reflect weakening economic momentum following a lacklustre 2024, growing
uncertainty, a rise in protectionist economic policies, and the impact of a
broader global slowdown.
In a more severe adjustment, the IMF slashed South Sudan’s 2025 economic
growth forecast by a staggering 31.5 percentage points. The sharp decline is
linked to delays in the resumption of oil production after a major pipeline
sustained damage, significantly impacting the country’s revenue and export
capacity.
The IMF’s outlook underscores the fragility of economies heavily reliant
on natural resources and the ongoing risks posed by global market volatility.
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