In CNBC’s quarterly “All-America Economic Survey,” Trump gets support
from 48% of registered voters, while Harris gets 46% a 2-point spread,
well within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
That narrow 2-point lead for Trump is unchanged from CNBC’s August poll,
and it’s essentially unchanged from the national NBC News poll earlier this
month, conducted by the same pair of bipartisan polling firms, which found both
candidates tied at 48% each.
Meanwhile, an oversample of registered voters residing in the seven core
battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina,
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin shows Trump ahead of Harris in those combined states
by just 1 point, 48% to 47% .
The pollsters who conduct the CNBC poll say inflation remains a powerful
subject shaping this election, with 63% of national voters saying they feel
that their family’s income is falling behind the cost of living, and with
nearly half of voters calling it one of their top issues for the election.
“Even as the data show inflation has theoretically been slowing down, it
has become more important in people’s minds over the course of the last three
quarters, not less important,” Democratic pollster Jay Campbell of Hart
Research Associates told CNBC. (Campbell conducts the poll with Republican
Micah Roberts of Public Opinion Strategies.)
On the issues and presidential qualities, the poll shows Harris leading
Trump by 13 points nationally on the question of which candidate has the
necessary mental and physical fitness to be president, and she’s ahead by 10
points on being honest and trustworthy.
Trump, however, has a 7-point advantage nationally over Harris on which
candidate better strengthens the economy in their communities. He also has an
8-point lead on dealing with taxes and businesses and a 9-point edge on the
question of helping small businesses.
The poll also finds 42% of registered voters saying they believe they
would be better off financially if Trump wins, compared with 24% who believe
they would be better off financially if Harris wins. Another 29% of voters say
their financial situation won’t change either way.
Asked which candidate would better bring positive change for the
country? — 42% of national registered voters pick Harris, while 40% choose
Trump. But both of those numbers are short of what will be needed to win the
presidency.
Another 5% of voters said they thought both Harris and Trump would bring
positive change. And another 9% of voters delivered the pessimistic verdict
that neither Harris nor Trump would bring positive change as the next
president.
Also, the CNBC poll shows Trump slightly more popular than Harris
nationally, with Trump’s rating at 42% positive, 48% negative (-6 net rating),
while Harris' stood at 39% positive, 49% negative (-10).
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