Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at
American University in Washington, declared that 'a lot would have to go wrong'
for Joe Biden to lose to Donald Trump in November.
Allan Lichtman devised a system, which he
called '13 Keys', and wrote a 1980s book explaining the idea.He says the
technique enables him 'to predict the outcome of the popular vote solely on
historical factors and not polls, tactics or campaign events.'
Despite polls showing Biden behind Trump in
several swing states, Lichtman believes it's still in the president's favour to
retain office, with two of his 13 keys - lack of serious primary challenge and
incumbency - already in Biden's favour.
That's two keys off the top,' he said.
'That means six more keys would have to fall to predict his defeat. A lot would
have to go wrong for Biden to lose.'
Lichtman says polls showing Trump either
competitive with or beating Biden nationally and in key swing states don't
impress him.
'They're
mesmerized by the wrong things, which is the polls,' he said. 'First of all,
polls six, seven months before an election have zero predictive value.'
It doesn't mean the Biden campaign can act
like it's a sure thing they'll repeat victory.
'It's always
possible there could be a cataclysmic enough event outside the scope of the
keys that could affect the election and here we do have, for the first time,
not just a former president but a major party candidate sitting in a trial and
who knows if he's convicted – and there's a good chance he will be – how that
might scramble things.'
Lichtman claims the COVID-19 pandemic was a
historical event that made him predict Biden's victory in 2020.
'The pandemic is what did him in,' he told
The Guardian
'He congratulated me for predicting him but
he didn't understand the keys. The message of the keys is it's governance not
campaigning that counts and instead of dealing substantively with the pandemic,
as we know, he thought he could talk his way out of it and that sank him.'
However, some keys are working in Trump's
favour.One of the keys is a significant third-party challenger, which may be
Robert F. Kennedy Jr's role in the race.
Two of the keys involve the economy and
while some economic numbers have trended in Biden's favor, he has yet to see
his approval rating tick up for it.
Social unrest is another key that tracks
against Biden, with college campuses now a hotbed for anti-Israel protesting,
with many of the young people referring to the president as 'Genocide Joe.'
Both the incumbent's charisma and the
challenger's charisma are also seen as keys and while many feel both candidates
are too old, age appears to be more of a factor against Biden than Trump.
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